By Atish R. Ghosh, Anne Marie Gulde, Holger C. Wolf
Few subject matters in overseas economics are as arguable because the selection of an trade price regime. because the breakdown of the Bretton Woods procedure within the early Seventies, international locations have followed a large choice of regimes, starting from natural floats at one severe to foreign money forums and dollarization on the different. whereas a monstrous theoretical literature explores the alternative and results of alternate expense regimes, the abundance of attainable results makes it tricky to set up transparent relationships among regimes and customary macroeconomic coverage ambitions reminiscent of inflation and growth.This booklet takes a scientific examine the proof on macroeconomic functionality below substitute trade expense regimes, drawing at the event of a few one hundred fifty member nations of the overseas financial Fund over the previous thirty years. between different questions, it asks no matter if pegging the trade cost ends up in decrease inflation, no matter if floating trade charges are linked to quicker output development, and no matter if pegged regimes are fairly susceptible to foreign money and different crises. The booklet attracts on heritage and idea to delineate the controversy and on average statistical how you can verify the empirical proof, and contains a CD-ROM containing the information set used.
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Additional resources for Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences, Volume 1
A country with The Theory of Exchange Rate Regimes 37 a poor inﬂation record and subject to signiﬁcant real shocks must decide between the insulating properties of ﬂexible exchange rates and the credibility beneﬁts obtainable by pegging the exchange rate. Beyond credibility and stabilization, other factors enter into the choice of regime. We conclude by brieﬂy touching upon three of these: ﬁscal constraints, ﬁnancial fragility, and exits. With a ﬁxed exchange rate and high capital mobility, ﬁscal policy has to shoulder the entire burden of macroeconomic stabilization.
This sample consists only of those observations that are classiﬁed in the same category (ﬁxed, intermediate, or ﬂoating) by both the de jure measure and by a de facto measure that we construct. In essence, the consensus sample drops ‘‘hard’’ ﬂoats and ‘‘soft’’ pegs. To preview the results, eliminating these ambiguous cases does not materially affect our ﬁndings on inﬂation performance, but it is of some importance for the growth results. 12 Single currency pegs are the largest group, accounting for almost one third of the observations, followed by basket pegs and managed ﬂoats.
To this end, we construct a ‘‘consensus classiﬁcation’’ that essentially drops soft pegs and hard ﬂoats by using the intersection of the de jure classiﬁcation and a de facto classiﬁcation that we construct. We ﬁrst compute a continuous de facto measure based on observed exchange rate behavior, then convert it into a discrete threeway classiﬁcation of pegged, intermediate, and ﬂoating regimes using the relative frequency distribution of regimes in the de jure classiﬁcation. The consensus sample then simply consists of all observations for which the two classiﬁcation methods agree.